The Climate Mobility Impacts dashboard created by IOM's Global Data Institute (GDI) visualizes where hazard exposure, high population density, and economic vulnerability are projected to coincide in future. Projections are available for two warming scenarios and three socio-economic scenarios. Comparing RPC 6.0 high-warming (3-4 degree increases in mean global temperature by 2100 compared to pre-industrial conditions) and RCP 2.6 low-warming (below 2 degrees increase by 2100) shows the effect of different levels of warming on populations, and how mitigation and emission reduction can reduce the populations exposed. Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) show trajectories based on factors including population, economic growth and technology. Combining both sets of scenarios include show how climate impacts are shaped by future economic, demographic and political activities.

These data also help identify climate-sensitive hotspots and develop effective anticipatory action to support at-risk communities worldwide. 

The dashboard allows you to explore the interrelationship between: 

  • Three variables: exposed land area, exposed population, and exposed vulnerable population 
  • Five hazards: heatwaves, droughts, wildfire, floods, tropical cyclones, and crop failure
  • Two projections of global warming: high and low 
  • Three socio-economic scenarios: ‘Sustainability’, ‘Middle-of-the-road', ‘Regional rivalry’
  • Different geographical regions and subregions 

Climate-related hazards like floods, storms, and wildfires are already a major driver of global human mobility, causing 26.4 million internal displacements in 2023 (IDMC, 2024). Mobility, or indeed immobility, due to climatic changes is the result of slow- and rapid-onset environmental impacts affecting the habitability of an area, both physically and economically. In many parts of the world, climate change is increasing these impacts. Evidence-based foresight into how climate change may affect when and where these hazards will occur in future is therefore crucial for developing effective anticipatory action in the context of human mobility.  

Key facts and figures

Global 

  • Up to 2.8 billion people globally are projected to be exposed to heat waves by 2090, far more than all other climate hazards combined
  • Between 2030 and 2090, the worldwide population exposed to heat waves is projected to more than triple. 
  • In the second half of the century, global warming is projected to increase global human exposure to river floods sharply, with up to 39 million people affected by 2090 under a high-warming scenario, more than three times as much as under a low-warming scenario 
  • The worldwide area exposed to drought is projected to increase by around ten times until by 2090 under a high-warming scenario. In 2022, drought in 13 countries and territories caused 2.7 million internal displacements (IDMC, 2023).

Asia 

  • For all hazards, Asia is the continent projected to be most affected in terms of total people exposed. 
  • Under a high-warming scenario, up to 1.3 billion people in Southern Asia are projected to be exposed to heatwaves by 2090 (accounting for over half of heatwave expose worldwide). 
  • Up to 16.8 million people are projected to be exposed to river floods in Southern Asia by 2090 under a high-warming scenario. In 2023 floods caused 1.2 million internal displacements in the region (IDMC, 2024). 

 

Africa:   

  • Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be strongly affected by wildfires, with up to 25 million people exposed across the region under a high warming scenario. This number could reduce to around half (13 million exposed people) under a low warming and sustainable socio-economic scenario. From 2014-2023 a total of 42,000 internal displacements occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa due to wildfires (IDMC, 2024)..
  • Higher global warming is projected to increase the size of economically vulnerable populations in Sub-Saharan Africa exposed to river floods in 2090 by around 700 per cent.  

 

Europe 

  • In Europe in 2090 under a high-warming scenario 4.2 million people are projected to be exposed to drought, 3.8 million living in Southern Europe. 
  • In 2023 wildfires were the hazard causing the most internal displacements (109,000) in Europe, followed by storms (87,000) (IDMC, 2024). .

 Americas 

  • Under a high-warming scenario, almost 190 million people may be exposed to heatwaves in the Americas, over twice as many as under a low-warming scenario (71.5 million). Seventy per cent of those exposed are projected to live in Latin America and the Caribbean. In 2023 there were 3160 internal displacements due to extreme temperature in the Americas (IDMC, 2024).

 

Concerted climate mitigation (i.e., a low- instead of high-warming scenario) would significantly reduce the global number of people exposed to major mobility-related climate impacts by 2090, for example: 

  • by around 90 per cent for droughts 
  • by around 70 per cent for river floods  
  • by around 66 per cent for crop failure

Methodology
This dashboard is based on a large ensemble of future global projections of six mobility-related climate hazards: heat waves, droughts, wildfires, river floods, tropical cyclones, and crop failures. These projections are available from a number of climate impact models, which each simulate certain weather-related physical processes, for different points in the future and for alternative climate scenarios (RCPs)
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